Star Wars Black: Defining Failure
Not surprisingly, my post outlining why I feel Star Wars Black will fail generated discussion . . . not only here at battlegrip.com, but also around the web. Poe Ghostal wrote an excellent response to my post on his site (read “Poe’s Point > Star Wars Black 6″ Doomed From the Start? (I’m not so sure)”), but since I don’t have time to address that correctly (I will) I instead want to turn to a Twitter discussion and attempt to answer an important question that came up:
What is failure for Star Wars Black?
Store Display Space
One possible measure of success or failure could be space in stores. As we all know, when a line is performing amazingly well a store dedicates more of their space to displaying the toys. We’ve all see hot lines grow and shrink as their popularity rose and then crashed; even the amount of space Star Wars toys have been given in stores has changed as the years pass. But with only four different action figures in the first wave — and the unlikely release of vehicles — display space isn’t a fair measure of success or failure for Star Wars Black.
But I do expect that we’ll see the amount of space given to the line grow as we get closer to the new Star Wars movie. Four different figures may not be worth a lot of space, but ten or twenty figures certainly would be. I think that if we see the store space devoted to Star Wars Black expand past its initial size when the line is released in August then we’re on the path to success.
Peg Warmers
I doubt anyone would disagree when I say that Playmates’ current Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles line is (at the moment) successful. The toys hit shelves and then sell through fast and if I had to point to one peg warmer in the bunch it would be April . . . but even then it’s relative because the April figures I see in stores are gone within a week of the rest of the line selling through.
So if we look to peg warmers as a sign of failure then how long does a single toy have to sit on a retailer’s shelves for it to be classified as a peg warmer? A month? Two months? Or is it less a case of time and more a matter of multiples of the same toy appearing while all of the other toys in the line are sold out? I still feel Darth Maul will be the first wave’s peg warmer, but that really doesn’t help me to define failure since retailers may simply return it to Hasbro. So peg warmer status for one toy doesn’t define failure (unless, of course, retailers don’t restock).
Surviving the First Year
On Twitter Doctor Kent said:
Success is year two product hitting store shelves. Many lines don’t even get that.
Very true, but with success being relative — what is successful for a small company can be a failure for a company of Hasbro’s size — I don’t think that’s quite a fair measure of success or failure for Star Wars Black. A second year, to me, feels like it will happen regardless of performance in the first year. Hasbro seems committed to their 6-inch Star Wars action figure line and I don’t see them giving up before the second year has started.
Comparing to the Classic
One option I offered on Twitter was ” If we don’t get the original 21 then the line failed.” Star Wars action figures in the seventies were huge business, and NoisyDvl5 on Twitter rightly responded to my declaration with:
The original 21 is a great measure for me, but for the companies holding key figures back could cause a misnomer.
And he’s right. When the first wave includes only two of the original 21 Star Wars action figures then that measure is a tough one to use. But what if we took the basic idea and focused it? What if, instead, success or failure of Star Wars Black hinged on only a dozen figures? I propose:
Star Wars Black has failed if we do not get the original 12 action figures.
Those first twelve action figures in 1978 were the starting point for everything that has come since. Those are the classics, and if Star Wars Black cannot bring us all twelve in 6-inch scale then, for me, the line has failed.
It’s Up to You
In the end, though, whether the line succeeds or fails is your call. Every one of us has different expectations from the Star Wars Black 6-inch action figures and we could debate this forever and never come to a conclusion that everyone agrees with. And as I said yesterday, no matter what happens the next several months before the line’s release will be packed with discussion and speculation.
I’m really looking forward to getting that first Star Wars Black action figure in my hands and seeing just what Hasbro has created.
Related articles
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- Five Reasons Why Action Figures Cost More Today (battlegrip.com)
I appreciate all the fail/succeed posts and discussions but I have 1 question. Are you excited for the line? This is the line I always wanted and was glad they never made! And I’m not sure maul will be a peg warmer either. Even though his movie sucked, he is very popular, especially with the clone wars stuff. i do see there being some figures not selling but not from this first release. I think the line is going to be amazing and my wallet is aching because of it!
I think a good measure is “Original 12 Plus Boba Fett,” because without Boba Fett the whole exercise is pointless if you ask me 🙂 Fortunately, we already know he’s coming.
Original 12 plus Fett is probably a good way to measure, though I’d also maybe throw in a couple prequel characters.
Let’s face it, they’re the current face of Star Wars. And if Maul is a good toy, I do question whether or not he’ll actually pegwarm – he’s a cool design who got some neat fight scenes and has gotten a LOT of awesome development in Clone Wars of late.
I totally agree with Poe. If this line is indeed geared towards adult collectors, the Original 12+1 will be a perfect determining factor for its success. Kids aren’t going to want a Tusken Raider figure. The adults will. If it is a success, Hasbro will be able to focus on the adult desires (that sounds dirty) and put them out. If it doesn’t do well, Hasbro will start pumping out more of the pandering figures (Ahsoka, Maul, Savage Opress, Padme) in hopes of increasing interest.
@Matthew M – “Are you excited for the line?”
Absolutely. Those press photos look amazing and IF Boba Fett (in any form) is a SDCC exclusive then it may be the first SDCC exclusive I will actually stand in line to grab. Especially if it is Fett plus Carbonite Han.
@Poe – “I think a good measure is “Original 12 Plus Boba Fett,†because without Boba Fett the whole exercise is pointless if you ask me”
I could live with that! I still want the first 21, but mainly so I can get the Cantina characters. But now we’re really into the whole area of “success or failure of the line will be a personal thing.” For some it will be a failure if they never get a Biker Scout and Speeder Bike.
@General Tekno – Maul looks great, but he still has the stink of Episode I on him. And I’ve heard as many adult collectors complain about The Clone Wars as I have heard say great things about the series.
@Paul – With the tooling costs and lack of vehicles I can’t see Hasbro pushing this toward kids if the adult market doesn’t support the line. But maybe I’m very wrong and Hasbro will attack the vehicles scale with new Mini-Rigs.
Why do you keep going back to the vehicles? Does a line’s success hinge upon in-scale vehicles being produced? Look at DC Universe Classics — no vehicles. 20-ish waves and plenty of A-listers along with “who the hell is that”-listers.
When I first read about this line I thought, “Yeah, I’m going to be cherry picking this line for sure…” Then I started to think of all the possibilities and then I saw that maul and that sandtrooper, and that r2, and that luke! Oh boy, between this and neca making kenner-style predators, I’m in trouble!
Not getting the original 12 would certainly be a good meter to gauge failure, not only on the selling front, but on Hasbro’s front. In my opinion we should be getting all 12 before dredging up “characters” like Darth Maul.
I’ll likely only be picking up figures based on characters we got in the vintage days because I consider them core. Maybe I’d consider a couple from the prequels, but in the end, for me the success of this line begins and ends with character selection.
I want to be excited for this, I really do, but with such a selection of characters to choose from (both from movies and the expanded universe) I know there’s gonna be a lot of people at Hasbro pulling for certain characters, while Lucasfilm is gonna be pushing other characters. If I knew for certain, without a hint of doubt that I’d be getting standard versions of Luke, Leia, Han, Chewie, C-3PO and Vader I’d be all in. That’s another thing though: That’s what I’d want out of the line, but some other fans would probably have different must-be-made lists. There’d be no pleasing everyone. Though there’s hardly a line that ever HAS done that before.
@PrfktTear – Vehicles are less important to DC Universe Classics and Marvel Legends than they are to Star Wars. (The lack of a Batmobile in DC Universe Classics has always been a weak spot in that line for me; even the Power Attack Batman line had a Batmobile from Day One.)
I’ve got a book at home about Star Wars toys that mentions Kenner’s reasons for 3.75-inch scale figures was so that they could manufacture toys like the Millennium Falcon for a reasonable price. The 6-inch line may be aimed at collectors, but that doesn’t mean collectors won’t ever want vehicles . . . or that Hasbro and Lucasfilm won’t ever look at the line and want vehicles and higher price points.
@Matthew M – I hope Hasbro creates a box set of Sandtroopers with different rank shoulder pads. And I want a Dewback!
@FigureFan Zero – “In my opinion we should be getting all 12 before dredging up “characters†like Darth Maul.”
I do wonder how much of character selection is decided by Hasbro and how much is Lucasfilm decisions that Hasbro has to work around/within.
@Black Arbor – “If I knew for certain, without a hint of doubt that I’d be getting standard versions of Luke, Leia, Han, Chewie, C-3PO and Vader I’d be all in.”
I suspect that you’re not alone. Hasbro could do a lot worse than to publicize a one year commitment to the line that gets all of these figures out in the first three or four waves.
Yay! I got mentioned.
I say “year two” because of the ULTIMATE definition of failure – AKA so many Playmates lines from the 90s. Skeleton Warriors, Darkwing Duck, Monster Force, etc etc never even got a “the three figures that would bridge to year two”. This was a bad thing on those lines, because it meant things like no Jim Lee Leonardo for the fans that really liked those figures.
If we got the first year of stuff and at Toy Fair next year, Hasbro was announcing NO new product in six-inch…I would consider that a big failure. A failure of that level on Star Wars would be pretty unprecedented, no?
A lot of my favorite childhood lines failed using this standard – Inhumanoids being one. Food Fighters. Computer Warriors. One year and done.
I have an alternate question, because I’ve rarely collected six-inch lines. Do we all see six-inch as a “collect em all” scale anyway? Truth be told, I might pick up an X-Wing Luke or an Episode III Anakin (yeah, I know) just to have one fun figure to mess around with. Do people want to have giant plastic bins full of these figures in five to ten years, as I have seen with Marvel Legends and DC Classics?
It is going to be interesting to watch how this progresses.
@John K – “Do we all see six-inch as a “collect em all†scale anyway?”
I don’t. I’ll pick through and choose figures from the line based on character and how good the design looks. Out of the first wave of Star Wars Black 6-inch figures the Sandtrooper and R2 are musts, Luke is a very likely, and Maul is an almost certain pass.